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2016 首页» 杨凌国际农业科技论坛» 论文摘要» 2016

  Allen M. Solomon, Ph.D.

  Retired National Program Leader for Global Change Research, U.S. Forest Service, Washington DC USA

  Since retiring from active research and project management in global change, I have turned increasingly to understanding the human dimensions of changing climate and atmospheric chemistry. I have worked with local to international non-governmental organizations, particularly with the Climate Reality Project created by U.S. Vice President Al Gore (http://www.climaterealityproject.org).

  In this context, this talk will aim to review basic understandings of the climate changes occurring now and in the future; the consequences of the changes for people, primarily in southern Asia; those changes most important for maintaining sustainable agriculture and forestry; and actions involving adaptation (= management) and mitigation (= policy) that can be taken to reduce the worst stresses on our food and fiber productivity.

  Atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) have been known to warm the earth for over 100 years, and their concentrations are increasing. Weather records clearly demonstrate that, as a result, climate is warming. Because warming increases evaporation from the oceans and the land, it causes greater storms, flooding, and between storms, increasing drought.

  These temperature, precipitation and soil moisture extremes are causing severe hardships on local and regional populations, particularly the poorest people with the least resilience. The extremes also are critical to reducing crop and forest productivity. The direct impacts of increasing drought and warmth are particularly dangerous to crop productivity, while increasing typhoon intensity, drought and resulting wildfires and pathogens threaten sustained growth and carbon storage by forests.

  Management aimed at reducing evaporation from agricultural soils, combined with increased diversity of crop varieties, can adapt sustainable food production to increasing climate variability. Thinning forests to increase the soil moisture available to each tree can also reduce effectiveness of pathogen attacks, especially when combined with increasing species diversity and varying the age structure of forest stands. The latter can also increase forest resilience to typhoon damage.

  Policy changes can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon taxes and encouraging solar and wind energy. When combined with policies aimed at increasing terrestrial sequestration of carbon (agro-forestry; tree planting on non-agricultural lands), policy actions can further reduce climate changes and the negative impacts on sustainability of agriculture and forestry.

  

Changing Climate Effects on Populations, Agriculture and Forestry
发布时间:2016-12-18


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